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Analysis of the Political Market

14.3 Analysis of the Political Market

According to the self-interest theory of government, the size of government increases due to rent-seeking activity and brokering activity by politicians. There are also other forces at work to influence the type of governmental programs that are created by politicians. Most of these forces tend to increase the size of government.

The Median Voter Theorem

The median voter theorem predicts that under majority rule, politicians will adopt the positions of voters near the center of the political spectrum. To see why, refer to Figure 14.1. Assume that political preferences in society are continuous from left to right and distributed under the normal curve in the figure. If there are two candidates, R and L, who are at equal distances from the center, they will get the number of votes represented by the area under the curve on their side of the median line. They tie at the polls. Candidate R will realize that he can steal some votes by moving toward the median, because he can count on all the voters to his right. Candidate L will realize what is happening, and she will also move toward the center in an attempt to get a majority of the votes cast. As a result, both politicians will end up near the median political position, where there are the same number of voters to the left and the right.

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